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resulting from decapitation will decisively achieve national strategic objectives or will shape
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Natural Resource and Ethical Trade Programme of the Natural Resources Institute, What are Criteria,
Indicators & Verifiers?, (University of Greenwich, accessed on 13 March 2004); available at
http://www.nri.org/NRET/TP3.pdf; Internet. This publication is an output from a research project funded
by the United Kingdom Department for International Development for the benefit of developing countries.
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circumstances to this end. Targeting a strategic individual within a more susceptible political
structure will increase the potential value of decapitation. For example, one-party states,
anarchies, military juntas, and dictatorial systems are highly dependent on their leadership figure
and present a vulnerable decapitation target. As seen in the Pablo Escobar case, however,
decapitating the Medellín cartel, a dictatorial system, did not achieve the intended results desired
by the Bush and Clinton administrations Escobar was a strategic individual in his own cartel; he
was not a strategic individual of the drug industry as a whole. Accurately determining the
criticality of a target is the first step to applying a decapitation strategy.
Criticality Indicators
" Is the target a strategic individual?
Verifier: Strategic Individual definition
" What is the desired effect?
Verifier: Coerce, disrupt, deter, or destroy
" What is the most probable result from applying a decapitation strategy?
Verifier: Historical precedence (successfully achieve the desired effect or no; if not
successful, what could result?)
" Does the most probable effect link directly toward attaining the campaign objectives?
Verifier: Linkage to listed objectives
" Will successfully decapitating this organization benefit the national objectives?
Verifier: Refer to national objectives
Verifier: Refer to campaign objectives
Criterion 2: Legitimacy The operation will conform to the generally accepted principles
of Just War Theory. The commander must answer whether or not the targeted individual s actions
pose a valid threat to the security of the United States. The targeted individual must present a
threat to national security either personally or through the organization that he influences. If the
decapitation operation results in the individual s death, it will be ruled a lawful death according to
the Laws of War. Each of the five strategic individuals in Chapter Three ultimately met this
criterion. The United States diligently works to conduct military operations justly. Although the
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CIA in the 1960 s attempted five assassinations against foreign leaders, America s judicial
system righted the wrong and reset the country onto the moral high ground. Evaluating and/or
establishing legitimacy is the second step to applying a decapitation strategy.
Legitimacy Indicators
" Is decapitation a legitimate option?
Verifier: Apply Just War Theory
" Is this individual a valid military target?
Verifier: Refer to Rules of Engagement
Verifier: Refer to Laws of War definition
Criterion 3: Cost Effectiveness America s benevolent assimilation of the Philippines
following the Spanish-American War cost over three years, $400 million, and 7,000 casualties.
The separated cost for hunting down and capturing Emilio Aguinaldo specifically, was not
recorded but his capture was certainly determined to be sufficiently beneficial to regional
objectives. Cost effectiveness incorporates all aspects of negativity weighing against the value of
the expected outcome. The commander must include cost analysis with respect to risk, time, and
money. Determining cost effectiveness is the third step in evaluating decapitation.
Cost Effectiveness Indicators
" What is the risk to force?
Verifier: Conduct thorough risk assessment
" What is the cost with respect to all elements of national power?
Verifier: Military cost
Verifier: Diplomatic cost
Verifier: Economic cost
Verifier: Informational cost
" What are the anticipated opportunities for decapitation?
Verifier: Expected actionable intelligence availability
Verifier: Military capabilities
Criterion 4: Proportionality Analyze the ends, ways, and means. The ways and means
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